I was recently reading a paper on the historical development of probability theory where Cardano is presented as having discovered some elementary laws of probability in the 1550s. But he is described as confusing the multiplication rule for independent events with the multiplication of the odds of these events. How well did he really understand probability and what is the most likely way that he derived these results?

  • $\begingroup$ What are the title and author of this paper? $\endgroup$ Jan 14, 2021 at 15:19
  • $\begingroup$ @kimchilover I don't remember sorry. $\endgroup$
    – GEP
    Jan 14, 2021 at 15:20
  • $\begingroup$ Was it a published paper in a journal, or a student effort, or what? $\endgroup$ Jan 14, 2021 at 15:28
  • $\begingroup$ @kimchilover it was a published paper in a journal. $\endgroup$
    – GEP
    Jan 14, 2021 at 15:53
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ Was it David Bellhouse, "Decoding Cardano's Liber de Ludo Aleae" in Historia Mathematica, 2005? $\endgroup$ Jan 14, 2021 at 17:03


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