In his 1784 work Algebra, Colin MacLaurin presents the following argument for why a negative number multiplied by a negative number is (or rather, must be) positive (see Chapter III case IV, here; it's page 35 of the PDF).
$-n(a-a)$ must equal 0 (since $a-a = 0$)
Using the distributive property, the first term $-n \times a$ is equal to $-na$. The only way for the distributive property to still hold, and the statement to be true, is if $-n \times -a=na$.
If we let $-n=-a$ from our example above, then $-a \times -a$ will of course be a positive number, $a^2$.
From this it is clear that there is no way to square a real number and end up with a negative result, hence Cardano's (and everyone else's) confusion over what to do when confronted with something like $\sqrt{-n}$: such an operation was undefined, because there wasn't any number at the time that could be squared to get a negative result.
In Book I of L'Algebra (1572), Bombelli specifies that "minus times minus makes plus", and even offers an example that is farily close to MacLaurin's:
Multiply $(6-4) \times (5-2)$
$-2 \times -4 = 8$, and
$-2 \times 6 = -12$, and
$5 \times -4 = -20$, and
$5 \times 6 = 30$
so $(6-4) \times (5-2) = 30-20-12+8$
Bombelli does not take the extra step to explain that a negative times a negative must be positive for the calculation to work out properly, however from this example and his multiplication rules he would have realized that (a) the square of a negative number is positive, and (b) thus there was no way to square a number and get a negative result, rendering the square roots of negative numbers perplexing at best. (A full version of L'Algebra in Italian can be found here. The above excerpts are from Book I {Libro Primo}, pages 70 and 71 {127 and 128 of the PDF}. Without knowing you at all, I bet your Italian is better than mine...)
I will say that I am not 100% certain that MacLaurin was the first one to actually demonstrate this "minus times minus is plus" rule (versus just stating it). Bombelli gave an example, but MacLarin's Treatise is the earliest publication I have found that offers something like a proof. I whole-heartedly invite the pros here to fact check me. I do hope that I have addressed the general spirit of your question, though.